EIA’s global petroleum and liquid fuels supply forecast assumes that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will reduce crude oil production by 0.5 million b/d from March through May because of lower expected global oil demand in early 2020, ONA reports citing monthly report of the Energy Information Administration under the US Ministry of Energy.
This OPEC reduction is in addition to the cuts announced at the group’s December 2019 meeting.
EIA now forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 28.9 million b/d in 2020, which is 0.3 million less than forecast in the January STEO.
In addition to these production cuts, EIA’s lower forecast OPEC production reflects ongoing crude oil production outages in Libya during the first quarter.
In general, EIA assumes that OPEC will limit production through all of 2020 and 2021 to target relatively balanced global oil markets.